The Pinocchio Effect

I heard a reporter yesterday, almost puzzled, asking when to believe Donald Trump, given how often his statements contradict each other. But the answer is actually very simple: you don’t.

Trust isn’t built on isolated statements, it’s built on consistency over time. And when someone repeatedly says one thing, then another, then reverses again, the issue stops being about what is true and becomes about whether truth is even part of the equation.

And this isn’t just political. It’s deeper than that.

From an evolutionary standpoint, trust is one of the foundations of human survival. We didn’t make it this far because we were the strongest, we made it because we could cooperate. Because when someone said, “There’s danger,” people listened. When someone said, “I’ll watch the food,” others believed them.

Now imagine that same environment, but with someone whose words constantly shift. If it were just you and him on an island, and something important depended on his word— “Don’t worry, I’ll take care of the food so everyone can eat.”

Would you trust that?

Exactly.

Groups that can’t rely on each other don’t last. It’s that simple. They fracture. They collapse. They disappear. Even the story of the The Boy That Cried Wolf got this right: when someone lies often enough, belief disappears, even when it matters most.

So at some point, it’s no longer about being surprised. It’s about recognizing the pattern for what it is.

But sure… let’s keep wondering when to believe him. What could possibly go wrong.

Thanks for reading. Abrazos.

Diego Rojas