JAPAN´S STABILITY IN CHAOTIC TIMES

Japan, as a pacifist island nation deeply dependent on global trade and diplomacy, stands at a delicate crossroads. If the scenario we’ve described in a previous blog - a potential collapse of American democracy into a theocratic-nationalist authoritarian regime - unfolds, the global balance of power will shift dramatically. 

Japan cannot afford to wait for the fallout to adapt.

In my opinion, here’s what Japan must start doing now to prepare for this highly plausible and dangerous new global reality:

1. Reassess Strategic Dependence on the United States

For decades, Japan has leaned heavily on the U.S. for military protection, technological partnership, and economic alignment. But if the U.S. descends into authoritarianism, led by Christian nationalism and isolationist policy, Japan must rethink the alliance:

• Diversify military alliances: Quietly deepen ties with Australia, India, South Korea, and NATO partners like France and the UK.

• Invest in independent defense capabilities: Strengthen cyber defenses, space monitoring, and missile defense systems. Not to militarize recklessly, but to deter aggression and ensure autonomy. Nuclear weapons? Perhaps. This is the new reality.

• Why not start secret talks with China to focus on a new Asian Pacific treaty? Everyone prefers peace, right?

  
  

2. Secure Energy and Food Independence

Japan imports over 90% of its energy and most of its food. That’s a liability in a world where supply chains could fracture overnight.

• Accelerate the transition to renewables and energy storage: Wind, solar, geothermal, hydrogen, nuclear. Japan must become energy-resilient.

• Rebuild domestic agriculture with smarter tech: Encourage vertical farming, AI-enhanced crop management, and domestic seafood sustainability.

• Stockpile essentials: Japan should discreetly build national reserves of grain, medicine, and rare earth materials.

  
  

3. Rethink Economic Alignments and Trade Networks

If America turns inward or becomes erratic, global trade routes and agreements will suffer.

• Strengthen the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) while increasing standards of transparency and fairness within it.

• Build tighter commercial and tech ties with the EU, ASEAN, and India, focusing on trust-based trade with stable democracies.

• Create redundancy in supply chains: Spread production out of China and the U.S., and develop strategic manufacturing hubs in Vietnam, Indonesia, and at home.

4. Fortify the Yen and Financial Systems

The collapse of U.S. credit trust would destabilize the dollar, thus shaking global markets. Japan must:

• Diversify foreign reserves away from dollar-dependence.

• Create regional stability mechanisms with Korea, Singapore, and other East Asian economies. Maybe even a new cooperative reserve system.

• Promote the yen as a regional reserve currency for stability and influence.

  
  

5. Strengthen Democratic and Cultural Identity

In a world where democracy may be retreating, Japan must double down on its values:

• Promote liberal education, free press, civic engagement, and a secular government.

• Stay firm in defending women’s rights, environmental protection, and social harmony.

• Invest in cultural diplomacy. Japan’s soft power is immense and can be wielded to counteract the rise of cultural authoritarianism globally.

  
  

6. Prepare the Public for Global Shocks

People need to know, without panic but with realism, that the world is shifting.

• Encourage critical thinking, resilience, and civic responsibility.

• Promote transparency in leadership without fearmongering.

• Train communities in disaster response, not just for earthquakes or tsunamis, but for economic shocks, food shortages, and potential geopolitical tension.

  
  

7. Forge a New Identity as a Global Mediator

Japan’s moral credibility, peaceful constitution, and diplomatic skill make it a unique player in a polarized world.

• Position itself as a bridge between East and West, between democracy and neutrality.

• Advocate for a global peace and climate compact, offering leadership in forums where the U.S. may no longer be welcome or trusted.

• Lean into science, ethics, and environmental stewardship as national principles that the world can respect and rally around.

  
  

In Conclusion:

If authoritarianism in the U.S. takes root, it will not be America that falls alone, it will drag the world into its storm. Japan cannot fix America, but it must be ready for a world where American leadership collapses under the weight of fanaticism and greed.

In that world, Japan’s role could grow, not as a militaristic superpower, but as a wise, ethical, and deeply prepared nation that saw what was coming… and chose calm, cooperation, and strategy over denial.

Thanks for reading. Abrazos.

Diego Rojas